Analysis of the new Asylum Agreement and its impact on upcoming election

The European Union’s new asylum agreement, approved on December 20, 2023, aims to reform the bloc’s migration and asylum system by introducing a more efficient and fair process for asylum seekers. The agreement has been met with mixed reactions, with some praising its potential to address the challenges of migration and asylum in the EU, while others expressing concerns about its potential to harm human rights and worsen the situation for refugees.

Key Provisions of the New Asylum Agreement

The new asylum agreement includes a number of key provisions that aim to improve the EU’s migration and asylum system:

• Pre-screening at external borders: This would involve screening asylum seekers at the EU’s external borders to quickly identify those with a legitimate claim for asylum and those who do not.
  
• Solidarity mechanism: This would require EU member states to share the responsibility for hosting asylum seekers, with countries that receive a high number of asylum applications being compensated financially.
  
• Safe third countries: This would allow the EU to return asylum seekers to third countries that are deemed safe, even if they have not yet applied for asylum in those countries.
  
• Fast-track asylum procedures: This would speed up the asylum process for asylum seekers who are deemed to have a strong chance of being granted asylum.
  
• Accelerated deportations: This would allow the EU to deport asylum seekers whose applications have been rejected more quickly.
  

Potential Impact of the New Asylum Agreement

The new asylum agreement has the potential to have a significant impact on the EU, both in terms of its migration and asylum policies and its overall political landscape.

• Potential benefits:
  
  • Improved efficiency and fairness of the asylum process
  • Reduced pressure on frontline EU member states
  • Greater sharing of responsibility among EU member states
  • Reduced risk of irregular migration

• Potential concerns:
  
  • Increased risk of refoulement, the forced return of asylum seekers to countries where they face persecution
  • Increased use of detention for asylum seekers
  • Increased risk of human rights violations
  • Increased political polarisation around migration issues

Impact on the Upcoming European Parliament Election 2024

Before the new asylum agreement most analysis showed that immigration to the EU was likely to have a significant impact on the upcoming European Parliament election in 2024. Far right and other populist parties will continue to fuel debate on this issue, especially since they lack clear views on any other issues. While the parties and party groups in favour of the agreement now can point at the fact that there is an asylum system available, and that there are other issues that really need a solution. For instance:

• How to manage the transformation for a sustainable future. 
• EU:s future enlargement
• Reformation of its institutions and how to empower European democracy.
• Common foreign policy and security in a chaotic world of war, both in the traditional sense and in cyberspace, 

These are some of the issues that are more pressing than people arriving from third countries that only want a better future. Especially, when a new asylum agreement now will be implemented. The success for the parties and party groups that voted in favour of the agreement is their ability to communicate the impact of the agreement, and to turn the political agenda into more pressing issues where some are mentioned above.  

European trends Analysis

More about the asylum agreement